Cyclone: Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy going to hit Gujarat Badly

Cyclone: Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy going to hit Gujarat Badly

Cyclone Biparjoy

June 12th, Monday:

Cyclone Biparjoy is going to be one of the storms to affect India in recent years that lasted the longest, hovering over the Arabian Sea for about ten days. The likelihood of devastating storms when a cyclonic storm makes landfall rises with the length of time it spends hovering over the sea.

Weather forecast

Weather forecasters could tell that this potential cyclone may pack a punch as soon as they noticed Biparjoy forming as a small Low Pressure Area in the Arabian Sea. They never would have anticipated how quickly the cyclogenesis would occur.

Biparjoy's intensification was quicker than Cyclone Mocha's in May, taking just 48 hours to go from cyclonic circulation (June 5) to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (June 7). But Biparjoy continued to grow over the weekend, becoming an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm.

Biparjoy quickly intensified due to favourable Madden-Julian Oscillation conditions in the Indian Ocean and Equatorial Rossby Waves in the Arabian Sea, both of which contributed to the region's unusually warm Arabian Sea and a weak monsoon start.

Even though different weather models projected that Biparjoy would develop into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm, there appeared to be considerable disagreement about how it would proceed.

The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) first suggested that Biparjoy was headed towards Pakistan and the nearby north Gujarat beaches, while NOAA's GFS (Global Forecast System) initially suggested that it was moving towards Oman. However, the GFS of the India Meteorological Department indicated that it was moving towards the shores of Pakistan and Iran.

Impact in Gujrat & Coatal Pakistan

Biparjoy ultimately recurved, defying these predictions, and is now expected to track slightly east towards the northern Gujarat coast rather than Pakistan's coastline.

The Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy, which is currently over the east-central Arabian Sea, moved northward overnight, and as of 5:30 AM today, it was centred over the area as well as the nearby northeast Arabian Sea.

It was located more precisely 640 kilometres south of Karachi in Pakistan and 340 miles southwest of the Porbandar district of Gujarat. Today was the strongest day, with wind gusts reaching 195 kmph and speeds reaching 165 to 175 kmph.

But by this evening, it's predicted to gradually deintensify into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm once more, with sustained winds of 155–165 kph and gusts to 185 kph.

According to weather forecasts, Biparjoy will continue travelling north until Wednesday (June 14), at which point it will turn north-northeast, passing across the coasts of Pakistan's neighbouring states and Saurashtra-Kutch. It will make landfall as a very severe cyclonic storm around midday on June 15 between Mandvi, Gujarat, and Karachi, Pakistan, close to the Jakhau Port, Gujarat. Its maximum sustained wind speed is 125–135 kmph, with gusts up to 150 kmph.

Heavy rains (64.5 mm to 115.5 mm) have been predicted for Saurashtra and Kutch over the next few days due to the cyclone's influence. According to the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC), once Biparjoy makes landfall in Gujarat, it is likely to cause 2-3 metre storm surges, destruction of thatched houses, damage to pucca houses and roads, flooding, widespread damage to standing crops, plantations and orchards, as well as disruption of railways, powerlines and signalling systems in the northern and western coastal districts of Gujarat.